Finland's Economy Faces Slow Recovery Amid Structural Fiscal Challenges

23-09-2025


The Finnish economy is slowly emerging from a prolonged recession, with the Ministry of Finance projecting modest growth ahead. According to the ministry's autumn forecast, Finland's gross domestic product is expected to grow around 1.0 percent this year, 1.4 percent in 2026, and 1.7 percent in 2027. Despite falling inflation and lower interest rates improving household purchasing power, the recovery has been hampered by weak consumer confidence and economic uncertainty.

Unemployment remains a significant challenge, standing at about 9.4 percent of the labor force—among the highest rates in the European Union. The ministry expects the unemployment rate to decline to 9.0 percent in 2026 as economic activity strengthens. Growth in the labor force, driven by immigration and government employment measures, has so far translated mainly into higher unemployment rather than new jobs, reflecting the sluggish nature of the recovery.

Investment activity shows more promising signs after two years of decline. Defense procurement, including fighter aircraft purchases, is pushing defense spending to record levels, while renewable energy initiatives and new technologies are creating longer-term investment growth. However, the construction sector remains weak, with housing starts well below the level needed to meet long-term demand, and only gradual recovery is expected.

Public finances remain in "deep structural imbalance," with the ministry projecting a general government deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP this year, narrowing to 3.6 percent in 2026. The sustainability gap is estimated at about 2 percent of GDP, or roughly 7 billion euros, by the end of the decade. International factors, including higher U.S. tariffs and euro appreciation, continue to weigh on Finnish exports, though some positive signs from the euro area recovery provide cautious optimism.

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Norwegian Seismic Firm TGS Wins Repeat Customer Contract for Gulf Monitoring

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TGS, the Oslo-based energy data provider, has been awarded a significant ocean bottom node (OBN) acquisition contract in the Gulf of Mexico, marking another strategic win in one of the company's core markets. The 4D monitor survey is scheduled to commence in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will span approximately four and a half months. This contract represents continued confidence in TGS's capabilities from the international oil company client, though the specific customer identity remains undisclosed.

The contract was notably absent from TGS's booked position disclosed in the company's second quarter 2025 presentation, indicating a recent acquisition for the seismic data specialist. The Gulf of Mexico remains a critical region for offshore energy production, and 4D seismic monitoring plays an essential role in optimizing reservoir management and production efficiency for major operators in the region.

Kristian Johansen, CEO of TGS, emphasized the significance of securing business from repeat customers, stating that the client values TGS's OBN technology and proven track record of project execution. "The client is confident we will deliver high-quality data and insights to optimize production from one of their highest producing facilities in the Gulf of Mexico," Johansen commented, highlighting the operational importance of the project for the customer's production optimization efforts.

TGS's expertise in OBN technology positions the company as a trusted partner for international oil companies seeking to maximize recovery from existing assets. The 4D seismic approach allows operators to monitor reservoir changes over time, providing critical data for production optimization decisions. This latest contract win reinforces TGS's strong position in the Gulf of Mexico market and demonstrates the ongoing demand for advanced seismic monitoring solutions in mature offshore basins.